Key Takeaways

California’s San Joaquin Valley is one of the most populated regions of the state and it has one of the lowest rates of baccalaureate completion. Low levels of educational attainment both drive and reflect the region’s economic realities. Improving student pathways to and through college is critical to improving economic outcomes and should leverage the diversity of students, organizations, and opportunities in the region.

In this report, we take stock of the progress made in addressing low levels of college completion in the San Joaquin Valley and highlight initiatives and strategies that could improve completion. We find:

• High school students from the San Joaquin Valley are substantially less likely to go to and graduate from college than their counterparts in the rest of the state. At current rates of high school graduation, college enrollment, and college completion only 26 percent of San Joaquin Valley ninth graders are on a path to earning a bachelor’s degree, compared to 35 percent in the rest of the state. While valley high school graduation rates are in line with the state average, only 57 percent of graduates attend public or nonprofit colleges anywhere in the US, compared to 65 percent in the rest of the state. Fewer valley students start at four-year colleges and transfer rates from community colleges are low.
• San Joaquin Valley students are underrepresented at the state’s public four-year institutions. Low levels of academic preparation among high school graduates are likely driving low application rates, especially to the University of California (UC). Part of the problem is completion of the college preparatory courses required for admission to UC and California State University (CSU), though other factors such as financial constraints, campus proximity, and perceived access also play a role. Despite high acceptance rates and the presence of UC Merced, enrollment and yield rates (the share of accepted students that chose to enroll) are relatively low among the region’s applicants to the UC system, and many admits decide instead to attend a CSU. Promisingly, both CSU and UC view the region as important to future enrollment growth and have engaged in regional partnerships and various initiatives to widen freshman and transfer pathways, especially to the campuses in the San Joaquin Valley.
• College-going and completion is low among low-income, Black, and Latino students. San Joaquin Valley students from low-income backgrounds are much less likely to graduate from college than students from higher-income families. Black and Latino ninth graders are only about half as likely as white and Asian students to make it through high school, enroll in college, and graduate with a bachelor’s degree. These differences are similar to those in the rest of the state. College-going and transfer rates vary widely across school districts in the valley.

The good news is that students at some San Joaquin Valley high schools and districts are faring relatively well, highlighting the potential to leverage and scale effective strategies to increase educational attainment. Early and ongoing awareness about college and exposure to college- and career-readiness opportunities seems key to creating a college-going culture. Curriculum-focused strategies—including aligning high school graduation and college readiness requirements and expanding access to dual enrollment courses—also have the potential to streamline and widen pathways to college. Lastly, addressing non-academic needs—including college knowledge and financial support—may be necessary to make college accessible and affordable.

California’s San Joaquin Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. With 4.3 million people, it is the fourth-most populated region in California after Los Angeles County (10 million), the San Francisco Bay Area (7.8 million), and the Inland Empire (4.6 million, Figure 1). Yet it has relatively low wages, high poverty rates, and low levels of educational attainment.

The vast majority of valley residents live in urban and suburban rather than rural locales, and relatively few work directly in agriculture (9% of all workers). Over the past 50 years, per capita income has lagged behind the rest of the state and is now over 30 percent lower (Figure 2).

Low levels of educational attainment both drive and reflect these economic realities. The value of a bachelor’s degree remains high in California. And the state’s four-year public institutions—the University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU) systems—consistently rank among the best in the nation for return on investment, especially among lower-income students. Yet the San Joaquin Valley has the lowest share of California’s adults (ages 25–54) with at least a bachelor’s degree (Figure 3).

Migration partly accounts for this trend—more highly educated residents leave and less-educated adults from outside the valley move in. But the primary driver is that relatively few San Joaquin Valley students who graduate from high school enroll in college and complete a bachelor’s degree. Wide variation in student outcomes within the valley show what is possible, but far too many students are still falling off the path to a college degree.

Nevertheless, with its youthful, diverse, growing population, expanding economy, and robust regional networks, the San Joaquin Valley could be on the verge of dramatic improvements in college enrollment and completion. And improving its student pathways to and through college could lead to a better regional economy. For the most part, the region has infrastructure to accommodate more college students, and numerous organizations are working to improve student pathways.

Community colleges are a primary point of access to higher education for the region’s students. Statewide legislation in the form of AB 705 and AB 1705 has transformed the remedial education landscape and widened opportunities for community college students to reach their educational goals (Cuellar Mejia et al. 2023). Valley leaders have expressed strong interest in doing what it takes to foster college completion. The desire also exists among students and their families. For example according to PPIC’s Statewide Survey (Baldassare et al. 2023), 79 percent of Central Valley parents want their child to earn a college degree. To harness these opportunities effectively, a strategic and goal-oriented approach is imperative, focusing on key transition points that significantly impact educational outcomes.

The diversity of students, pathways, opportunities, and institutions within the San Joaquin Valley calls for a detailed examination of what is working best for its students, and where they are falling through the cracks. Analyzing publicly available data, this study determines the extent to which progress is being made.

Considering the larger economic context in the San Joaquin Valley, we examine trends in student progress toward baccalaureate completion with a focus on four critical junctures: high school graduation, college access and enrollment (among first-time and returning students), transfer to four-year colleges among community college students, and persistence to completion (a baccalaureate degree) among all college students. We identify inequities, measuring how educational trends vary by key sub-regional and demographic communities. Using variation across institutions, we highlight places where outcomes exceed expectations. We use qualitative analyses to identify policies and practices that might have led to these better outcomes, highlighting opportunities for increasing college-going rates in the region between and across all systems.

Today’s labor market continues to reward individuals who have a bachelor’s degree (Cuellar Mejia et al. 2023). The economic prospects for recent college graduates with a bachelor’s degree in the San Joaquin Valley are much better than for those without. But the valley’s wage premium (i.e., the difference in earnings for college graduates relative to the typical high school graduate) is lower than elsewhere in the state (Figure 4).

In the San Joaquin Valley, a worker with a bachelor’s degree who is early in his or her career earns on average 41 percent more than one with just a high school diploma, and workers with graduate degrees earn 61 percent more. Moreover, graduating from the region’s public universities allows students to recoup their education costs relatively quickly. A recent analysis of California higher education institutions’ return on investment found that UC Merced and the three CSUs in the region—Fresno, Bakersfield, and Stanislaus—enroll a high proportion of low- and moderate-income students whose degrees provide high enough earnings premium to pay down their costs quickly after attendance (Itzkowitz 2024). Yet despite this significant earnings premium, only 14 percent of Valley adults ages 23 to 34 have a bachelor’s degree, and 4 percent have a graduate degree—significantly lower than in the rest of the state (30% and 12%, respectively).

The San Joaquin Valley’s wage premium for those with a baccalaureate degree is lower compared to the rest of the state. The wage benefit of college degrees varies widely depending on major, and the region’s distribution of majors among recent graduates differs from the rest of the state (see Technical Appendix B). For example, schoolteachers earn 35 percent more than high school graduates; business majors and engineers earn over 80 percent more (see Technical Appendix B). In the San Joaquin Valley, schoolteachers are overrepresented among recent college graduates compared to the rest of the state (6% and 2%, respectively). Business and engineering majors are underrepresented.

The typical worker with an associate degree earns 20 percent less than the typical worker with a bachelor’s degree. But the wage premium for those with an associate degree is higher in the San Joaquin Valley (21%) than in the rest of the state (15%). This could be because in the San Joaquin Valley, occupations like nursing employ a higher share of workers with associate degrees than in the rest of the state. For example, 25 percent of the valley’s registered nurses have an associate degree compared to 17 percent in the rest of California.

The good news is that San Joaquin Valley students are almost just as likely to graduate from high school (85.1%) as their peers in the rest of the state (86.4%). The bad news is that at every other education transition, they have worse outcomes and are substantially less likely to eventually graduate from college. Based on the most recent rates of high school completion, college enrollment, transfer, and persistence in college, only about one-fourth of San Joaquin Valley ninth-graders are on a path to earn a bachelor’s degree (anywhere in the US), compared to over one-third in the rest of the state (Figure 5).

Within the San Joaquin Valley, college completion rates vary by race/ethnicity and by income. Asian students are more than twice as likely as Latino and Black students to complete the pathway from ninth grade to earning a baccalaureate degree. Only 20 percent of low-income students do so, compared to 31 percent of middle- and high-income students.

Differences are evident along every step of the pathway, but one transition stands out: enrollment in college among recent high school graduates. The San Joaquin Valley has among the lowest college-going rates (57%) of any major region in California. The statewide rate is 65%. Despite variations within the region, rates are low among all counties, and lower among all demographic groups compared to the rest of the state. Moreover, recent high school graduates are especially unlikely to enroll directly into a four-year university (Figure 6).

Across the San Joaquin Valley we see notable variations in enrollment, transfer rates, and graduation rates among both freshman enrollees and transfer students. Transfer rates among the valley’s community college districts range from 32 to 41 percent. At the region’s public universities, graduation rates of first-time freshmen range from 50 percent at Cal State Bakersfield to 65 percent at UC Merced. There is also variation in graduation rates of transfer students, ranging from 75 percent at CSU Bakersfield to 86 percent at UC Merced.

But the most dramatic variation is with respect to college enrollment of recent high school graduates, as shown in Figure 7. This is especially notable because this transition is responsible for most of the gap in student outcomes between the San Joaquin Valley and the rest of California. College enrollment rates of recent high school graduates range from less than 30 percent in a few districts to around 80 percent in those with the best outcomes. Notably, districts with high college-going rates for socioeconomically advantaged students also have similarly high rates for their socioeconomically disadvantaged (SED) students (Figure 7).

In short, high school districts that do a good job of getting students into college do so for all their students. For example, among the valley’s largest school districts, the college-going rate for SED students at Fresno Unified School District is 64 percent, versus 67 percent for their more advantaged peers. In contrast, Kern High School District has college-going rates of only 48 percent for SED students and 53 percent for more advantaged students. Moreover—and perhaps surprisingly—districts with high shares of socioeconomically disadvantaged high school graduates tend to have higher college enrollment rates among those students than districts with lower shares (Figure 8).

College Preparation and Transition from High School to UC and CSU

UC and CSU are the primary destinations of university-bound high school graduates in California. In the San Joaquin Valley, at least three in four of high school graduates who attend a four-year college go to either UC or CSU. Yet a large share of high school graduates are not eligible because they have not completed the college preparatory courses (known as the “A–G courses”) required to be considered for admission. A–G completion rates in the San Joaquin Valley are among the lowest in the state. While variation exists within the region, it is less than 50 percent across all counties and lower among students of all demographic groups compared to the rest of California (Figure 9).

Because of low academic preparation, the region’s share of freshmen at California’s public universities—primarily at UC—does not reflect its share of the state’s public high school students (Figure 10). While the region is more equitably represented at CSU, its share of incoming freshman classes has declined, even as the region’s share of high school students has increased since 2019. In other words, the region’s representation is low at UC and trending in the wrong direction at CSU.

Low application rates are driving these gaps, rather than admissions or yield rates (the share of admitted students who enroll). High school students from the San Joaquin Valley may not be applying to four-year institutions—primarily to UC—because they are not eligible for admission, likely due to a combination of less access to A–G courses, supports, and information. Low A–G completion rates inevitably reduce the pool of potential applicants. But even among the San Joaquin Valley’s A–G completers—students who qualify for admission to CSU and UC—four-year college-going rates are significantly lower compared to the rest of the state. This is particularly the case for UC. The valley is home to 14.5 percent of the state’s high school seniors. Yet despite UC’s relatively high admissions rates for valley applicants, they represent only 7.4 percent of the system’s freshman enrollees.

There may also be regional differences in student goals—current enrollment trends could reflect disparities in preferences for higher education (perhaps due to economic patterns in the valley). However, the region’s high school students do have high community college-going rates, and compared to students at community colleges in the rest of California, new students in the valley are the most likely to state an initial intention to earn a degree and/or transfer to a four-year university (Rothstein, Dizon-Ross, and Lacoe 2024).

Increasing enrollment at regional four-year universities

The San Joaquin Valley is home to three CSU campuses—Fresno State, CSU Bakersfield, and Stanislaus State—and to UC Merced, which was established in 2005 to address large population growth and make higher education more accessible for students in the region. Enrollment could be expanded in all four campuses. The reliance between the region’s students and campuses is mutual, and those in high schools and community colleges do not seem to be crowded out by out-of-region students. Furthermore, UC Merced is actively attempting to grow its enrollment, and almost all undergraduate programs at the three in-region CSUs are not impacted.

Still, the universities in the region face several obstacles to increasing enrollment. UC Merced is the newest addition to the UC system and attracts fewer applicants than the older and more selective campuses. It is growing, but still only accounts for 6 percent of the system’s incoming in-state freshman cohorts. Enrollment is more robust at the CSU campuses. Even so, their freshman enrollment declined by 11 percent from fall 2019 to 2023, compared to a 4 percent increase throughout the rest of the system. Increasing college enrollment among students from the region will likely rely on efforts from both four-year systems to address historical and current challenges.

Student preferences for specific campuses—as opposed to higher education in general—could help explain enrollment patterns. Due to low application counts and yield rates (the share of admitted applicants who choose to enroll), UC Merced has relatively low enrollment despite high admissions rates compared to other UC campuses. In fact, about 36 percent of freshman admits to UC Merced from all regions of the state chose instead to attend a community college or CSU compared to only 20 percent of freshmen admitted to any UC campus. Still, yield rates among San Joaquin Valley freshman applicants admitted to any UC are lower than they are among freshman and transfer admits from the rest of the state, signaling that equitable regional representation at UC may be larger than a Merced problem.

In contrast to what we see at UC, yield rates are higher among CSU freshman admits from the San Joaquin Valley than admits from the rest of the state. And among fall 2023 CSU enrollees from San Joaquin Valley high schools, 65 percent of freshmen ended up at one of the in-region campuses. Thus, while student preferences may play a role in driving students away from UC Merced, it is possible that such outcomes may also be explained by geographic factors—UC Merced admits from the valley may choose to instead attend a CSU, perhaps because it is closer to home.

Regardless of which type of four-year institutions they choose, many students in the San Joaquin Valley who do apply to and attend college tend do so within the region. These high rates of enrollment in Valley campuses could signal that students face difficulty leaving their immediate geographic area to attend school and/or have strong preferences for staying close to home. Such decisions could be due to a combination of financial, family, work, transportation, and housing constraints, among others. Furthermore, decisions on whether to apply or go to college at all are likely also dependent on how accessible the nearest campus is. 

 Moreover, students with parents that prefer they attend college while living at home are less likely to apply to multiple colleges—or college at all—compared to their peers. They will ultimately choose to attend an institution in proximity that makes logistical, financial, and emotional sense (Lopez Turley 2006; Lopez Turley 2009). Qualitative research conducted in the San Joaquin Valley finds that students’ decisions to apply and enroll in college are closely linked to their strong connections to home and the high value they place on their tight-knit communities, while also being affected by technological constraints and information gaps—especially in more rural areas (Puente 2022a; Puente 2022b; Puente, Nuñez, and Arroyo 2023). Taken together, these preferences and constraints—coupled with limited nearby options—likely deter many students in the valley from applying to four-year institutions.

Transfer and Transition from Community College to CSU and UC

Because the San Joaquin Valley has a high share of high school graduates that transition into community colleges instead of four-year universities, transfer is especially important to counteracting disparities in baccalaureate degree completion in the valley. Yet here again we see worse outcomes than in the rest of the state. All eight community college districts in the San Joaquin Valley have transfer rates lower than in the rest of the state (Figure 11). Large gaps among Asian, white, and Pell Grant recipients (a proxy for low-income students) result in these low overall rates. Interestingly, transfer rates among Latino and Black students are in line with their counterparts in other parts of the state.

Despite the region’s low transfer rates, its transfers to CSU tend to reflect the distribution of the state’s community college students as a whole. But students from San Joaquin Valley community colleges represent only 3.4 percent of transfers to UC, despite accounting for 11.1 percent of statewide community college enrollment (Figure 12).

At UC, the distribution of transfer enrollees by region of origin is similar to that of freshmen—suggesting that transfer has yet to counteract regional gaps in UC freshmen enrollment. Again, low application rates seem to be the key issue—while transfer admissions and yield rates vary across regions, low enrollment from underrepresented regions such as the San Joaquin Valley would persist even if these rates were equal.

Like freshman application rates, transfer rates are also likely affected by academic preparation in high school—primarily access to college preparatory courses, supports, and information. Recent research from the California Policy Lab shows that incoming students at San Joaquin Valley community colleges have significantly lower than average college readiness compared to students at other community colleges in the state—including low A–G completion rates, GPAs, standardized math and English test scores, and fewer AP exams passed (Rothstein, Dizon-Ross, and Lacoe 2024). Limited preparation in high school makes the path to transfer more difficult.

Moreover, some community college students in the region may face further headwinds, such as less access to key courses and both academic and non-academic supports. Considering that recent transfer students were not, or were only marginally, affected by community college placement reforms implemented in 2019 as a result of AB 705, college and regional-level disparities in access to key gateway transfer-level courses may help explain low UC application rates (Rodriguez, Brooks, and Hsieh 2021). Though there are 15 community colleges in the San Joaquin Valley, their geographic distance from each other may restrict students’ options, and thus, their access to key courses and supports. For example, in fall 2019, only 54 percent of first-time math students at Merced College started in a transfer-level course (compared to a 78% statewide average), and there were no colleges within a 25-mile radius that had higher direct access rates to transfer-level math. Overall, the share of degree- and transfer-intending students in the valley that are completing gateway transfer-level math and English in their first academic year of credit enrollment is lower than the statewide average.

Factors such as campus proximity, financial constraints, perceived access, and social capital also likely play a similar role in influencing decisions to apply among prospective transfers, as they do for prospective freshmen. If transfer students face work, familial, or financial constraints that make moving away from home difficult, their options for higher education will be limited by what is available locally. Work from the California Policy Lab shows that on average community college students in the valley are relatively far from their nearest UC campus compared to those in other regions (Rothstein, Dizon-Ross, and Lacoe 2024). Our previous work found that transfer applicants—especially to CSU—are disproportionately likely to apply to campuses close to their community college of origin (Cuellar Mejia et al. 2023). The share of transfer applicants from community colleges in the valley to CSU Bakersfield, Fresno State, and Stanislaus State is four to six times higher than the share of the state’s community college students in the region.

These factors cause transfer admissions and enrollment to concentrate regionally. Among fall 2023 CSU enrollees from San Joaquin Valley community colleges, 74 percent ended up at one of the in-region campuses. Our previous work has also shown that transfer students across the state, including from the valley, tend to enroll in campuses closer to home even when admitted to campuses further away (Cuellar Mejia et al. 2023). Such outcomes provide some evidence that transfer students from the region are relatively place-bound.

Unlike CSU, UC provides data on graduation rates by student origin, allowing for a more specific comparison between students coming from high schools and community colleges in the valley and those from schools in other parts of the state. Though graduation rates among freshmen and transfer cohorts throughout the UC system have increased over time, they remain lower among students from the valley. Given the region’s already low representation among UC enrollees, lower graduation rates among the region’s students that do enroll further exacerbates a regional divide in UC degree attainment. Additional and holistic efforts that continue supporting students after they initially arrive on campus will be crucial.

To explore factors that could improve college-going rates for students in the San Joaquin Valley we interviewed regional, district, outreach program, and community college leaders (see Technical Appendix A). Participants provided insights into the challenges and opportunities involved in improving college outcomes. In this section, we summarize the themes that emerged.

Early and Ongoing Awareness about College and Career Readiness

All K–16 collaborative and K–12 school and district leaders expressed the importance of early and ongoing awareness of and exposure to college- and career-readiness opportunities. Sites with higher college-going rates had established strategies in place, while for those with lower rates, efforts were in the early phases or still aspirational. One of the districts with higher rates shared they were using California College Guidance Initiative’s (CCGI) CaliforniaColleges.edu to support early awareness about college and career readiness. This website is now the state’s official college and career planning platform, embedded in the Cradle to Career data system. District students take three assessments to identify learning styles, interests, and career goals; students and parents can also access college and financial aid applications; and high school counselors check in on the assessments to inform students’ postsecondary planning.

While this tool seems promising, it appears that not all districts have fully adopted it to support college and career readiness. A district with lower college-going rates (who joined CCGI in 2022–23) shared that if they had a “magic wand” to improve college outcomes for high school students in the region it would be public college- and career-readiness centers. There students could engage in college and career exploration, get help finding a fit, and create plans to help them achieve their goals. District staff could have ongoing conversations with students and families to help ensure they are on track. The full implementation of CCGI’s CaliforniaColleges.edu could help address this gap.

Via counselors, teachers, and special programs such as Advancement Via Individual Determination (AVID) and federally funded college access programs like TRIO Talent Search and Upward Bound, districts with higher college-going rates provided students and their parents information as early as middle school about the A–G college-preparatory courses, honors and Advanced Placement courses, and dual enrollment. They continued to reinforce these opportunities throughout the high school years. For one leader at a district with lower college-going rates, the magic-wand wish to improve college outcomes was to gather all eighth and ninth graders in the auditorium to talk to them about the importance of taking the right courses to prepare and be eligible for college. This would allow all students to get information, not just those who may already be on the college prep or honors track.

Aligning High School Graduation with College Readiness Requirements

Completing the A–G course sequence with at least a C grade or better is required to gain direct access to California’s public four-year universities. During our interviews, we learned that districts with higher college-going rates for socioeconomically disadvantaged students had closely aligned their high school graduation requirements to the A–G sequence. One such large district makes enrollment into A–G the default—students need to opt out of the courses if they do not want to complete them. The district had begun developing awareness of the courses using informational posters, identifying barriers to A–G completion, and offering remedial and summer opportunities to help students stay on track to completing the requirements. Some of the high schools in a large district with low rates had also recently moved toward auto-enrolling students in A–G courses to help boost college readiness and enrollment.

It is important to note, however, that at two of the districts with lower college-going rates there appeared to be disagreement about requiring all students to enroll in A–G courses—district leaders shared a perception that students interested in a career like welding or trucking should not be required to complete the college prep courses. Interviews with a regional collaborative and a college outreach program suggested that given the role played by locally elected school boards, districts that were right next to each other can have very different college readiness opportunities—such that A–G policies often seemed centered on politics and local industry needs—as opposed to being focused on students’ needs and aspirations.

Expanded Access to Dual Enrollment Courses

Across all districts regardless of college-going rates, dual enrollment was identified as central to supporting college readiness and access. Community college leaders and several districts indicated that they were working on expanding dual enrollment for high school freshmen in response to California Community Colleges Chancellor Sonya Christian’s efforts. Several districts were beginning with a student success course—often taught by college counselors—that provides students with guidance on topics like college planning and success as well as personal and career exploration. Two districts that offered college and career pathways in high school had also embedded aligned dual enrollment courses into the programs, for example by integrating a dual enrollment Introduction to Business course as part of the business pathway.

With respect to college-level courses that are most beneficial to improving college-going for underserved students, all interviewees—including the community college leaders—identified transfer-level math and English courses. In fact, one district with higher college-going rates expected to have transfer-level math offered at all high schools within the next school year. This likely is a result of the concerted efforts of the Central Valley Higher Education Consortium (CVHEC) and the K–16 regional collaboratives that have prioritized the expansion of dual enrollment in general and have supported the upskilling of high school English and math teachers so they can expand access to dual enrollment math and English courses.

Three of the sites also identified Career Technical Education (CTE) courses as important in boosting college-going. Notably, they shared that taking CTE dual enrollment courses can offer a smoother transition into community college, as this may mean students are only a few courses away from completing a certification. Prior research has shown that a considerable number of dual enrollment student-success and CTE courses are not transferrable (Rodriguez and Gao 2021). To ensure students get the most benefit from dual enrollment courses it is important they be transferrable.

College Knowledge Support for Students and Families

Across the San Joaquin Valley, the top destination for college-goers is community college. Indeed, students in the San Joaquin Valley are more likely to start their college journey at a CCC than their peers in other regions. During our interviews we learned that the presence of community college outreach and counseling staff at high school campuses helps build and establish a trusted relationship in support of this pathway. At several high schools, community college counselors go to the campuses to help students with community college and financial aid applications. Community college staff—often in partnership with high school counselors—also host parent workshops and are available to answer questions in multiple languages. One district’s college and career health pathways program has all their students complete the community college application with support of one of their health pathways instructors. There was a sense that even if students are not planning to go to the community college, it is good for them to apply and list them on the FAFSA as a backup.

Districts with higher-than-average college-going rates to four-year universities tended to place a stronger focus on the college preparatory (A–G)/college readiness aspect of building a college-going culture. Notably, one such small district had not aligned A–G with high school graduation requirements, but all of their courses (except some in special education) were approved for A–G. At another, over half of their high school graduating class of about 130 was also supported by more intensive college readiness and college knowledge efforts (e.g., A–G completion, college application and financial aid planning and support, college tours, etc.) through AVID, Upward Bound, and Talent Search. This district also had two college- and career-readiness counselors that supported all students with this transition. At several of the larger districts these programs were also present, and while district leaders spoke highly of them, they also noted that these special programs are unable to serve all students who could benefit from them.

Cost and Location Affect College Choice

During our interviews we learned that cost and location are top factors students consider when making the choice to attend both two- and four-year college. Across our K–12 district and community college participants, there was a strong perception that attending community college was more affordable—rightly so, as there are significant differences in tuition across CCC, CSU and UC. In fact, at one district with higher overall college-going rates but with low four-year rates, this perception led to a misunderstanding that if students attend a CCC they do not need to apply for the FAFSA. Students did not know that the FAFSA was a gatekeeper to some forms of aid like loans and scholarships.

This knowledge takes on greater importance with respect to attending a four-year college—the cost concerns made the financial aid package one of the top factors considered. Students given a package that includes a mix of federal, state, and institutional aid along with scholarships often have much of their cost of attendance covered. They make their final choice based on who gave them the best financial aid offer. At one small district with higher rates of four-year college-going, senior-year teachers encourage FAFSA completion. For example, government and economics teachers allot time in their classes to help students with the task.

College location was also important but emerged in different ways. Community colleges can be close to home and often do not require relocating to attend. Several leaders noted that the rural aspects of the valley also played a role in choosing a community college, as access to transportation may limit postsecondary options for some students. In fact, when speaking of this, a leader at a district with high overall but low four-year college-going rates noted that there are several community colleges within close proximity and accessible via public transportation. This proximity also enabled community college counselors to engage in extensive outreach at the high school and allowed them to host college visits. The closest CSU to this district is about a 45-minute drive away—they do less on-campus high school outreach, and the district leader could not remember the last time a UC did outreach in his district.

At one large district with low overall but higher than average four-year college-going rates, having a four-year university in the community was likely a key factor driving those higher rates—the university there is highly engaged and has a very good reputation in the community. At a more rural district, with lower college-going rates overall and especially to four-year institutions, we learned that when a group of students was asked whether they’d attend a regional four-year university located in a rural setting, most said they would not consider it. If they left home for college they wanted something different—what a larger city has to offer.

In summary, our interviews with college, K–12 district, and K–16 collaborative leaders helped illuminate several key aspects shaping pathways into and through college for high school youth in the San Joaquin Valley. Early and ongoing engagement and support with college and career readiness, including access to A–G courses and college acceleration through dual enrollment; college knowledge support for students and families; and location/distance from home and cost constraints were found to be key in shaping the college path. If implemented fully and with equity in mind, reforms already underway—including college and career pathways, the expansion of dual enrollment, universal FAFSA, CaliforniaColleges.edu, and dual admissions, among others—are well positioned to help improve student outcomes.

The San Joaquin Valley—with its young, diverse, growing population; expanding economy; and robust regional networks—could be on the verge of dramatic improvements in college enrollment and completion. For the most part, the infrastructure exists to accommodate more college students, and valley leaders as well as parents and students have expressed strong interest in college completion. The value of a bachelor’s degree remains high in California, and the state’s four-year public institutions—the UC and CSU systems—consistently rank among the best colleges in the nation in terms of return on investment, especially among lower-income students. Wide variation in student outcomes within the valley show what is possible, but far too many students are still being left behind. To harness these opportunities effectively, a strategic and goal-oriented approach is imperative, focusing on key transition points that significantly impact educational outcomes.

Improving preparation in High School and Community College

A key transition is from high school to college. Students should be made fully aware of all their available opportunities and feel supported in pursuing higher education. Establishing A–G pathways and making college preparatory coursework the default (or mandatory) can pave the way for a smoother transition to higher education. By fostering an environment where college-going is the norm, districts can help students better visualize their educational journeys. Cultivating a college-going culture and equipping students and families with the necessary information are pivotal. For students seeking a bachelor’s degree, districts should focus on encouraging enrollment in four-year colleges.

Currently, California’s Golden State Pathways Program is an example of the significant funding and momentum behind college- and career-readiness pathways and presents an important opportunity to improve college readiness and access in a number of ways. First, on the curricular front, it can do so by setting A–G as the default curriculum and embedding dual enrollment courses that meet key requirements across higher education segments (e.g., CSU Breadth or IGETC requirements). Second, on the college-knowledge front, it can support college-going by embedding college-knowledge components into the pathways experience. This can include college tours, parent workshops, and in-class support for completing college applications and the FAFSA. It is critical that colleges reach out to valley high schools in their recruitment efforts.

Community colleges are a primary point of access to higher education for the region’s students. More work must also be done at this level to provide them with the opportunities, preparation, tools, resources, and information needed to successfully make the transition to four-year universities. Statewide legislation in the form of AB 705 and AB 1705 have transformed the remedial education landscape and widened opportunities for community college students to reach their educational goals. Currently, however, the share of the region’s students completing key gateway courses within their first year remains low compared to the statewide average. As community colleges in the valley approach universal access to transfer-level courses, using evidence-based strategies to improve completion rates and racial equity must be the next priority. Efforts to implement effective corequisite support models, provide sufficient professional development, and deliver holistic student services and supports must be prioritized.

Expanding Freshman and Transfer Access to CSU and UC

At both UC and CSU, the share of freshman and transfer applicants from the San Joaquin Valley is lower than in the rest of the state, resulting in lower enrollment rates as well. Students may not be applying as freshmen because they are not A–G eligible. While raising A–G course completion rates might fall within the purview of the K–12 system, UC could modify their admissions process to prioritize more equitable representation. This could be done directly, by placing greater emphasis on raising admissions rates among students from underrepresented regions, or indirectly, by giving added consideration to applicants from low-income families or high-poverty schools, or among students who outperform their peers with similar disadvantages. Additionally, both CSU and UC—especially the valley campuses—could increase their engagement in early recruitment efforts by working directly with high schools to help raise students’ eligibility and thus likelihood of applying.

Improving pathways is a key aspect of this comprehensive strategy. Currently, CSU Bakersfield has aimed to increase direct access to its campus by partnering with in-region high school districts through its dual enrollment program, offering students the opportunity to earn college credit for courses taken at their own high school site. UC Merced has actively engaged to improve local freshman and transfer pathways, most notably through its partnerships with Merced Union High School District and the Fresno-Madera K–16 Collaborative. Regarding the latter, UC Merced is involved in multiple initiatives—including with the Central Valley Higher Education Consortium—to streamline transfer through collaborative curriculum alignment, providing increased outreach and direct academic support to community college students. Such regional coordination and program alignment should be prioritized to streamline the transfer process. Additionally, expanding initiatives like Associate Degree for Transfer (ADT) can provide a structured and efficient route for students transitioning from community colleges to four-year institutions. The ADT provides students with a clear curricular pathway to qualify for transfer to California State University campuses.

Broadening Regional Coordination and Collaboration

Further development of regional—rather than local—college promise programs is recommended. To streamline admissions, UC Merced has implemented its Merced Automatic Admissions Program (MAAP) aimed toward local high school students, and its Merced Promise program in partnership with Merced College. Through MAAP, UC Merced has partnerships with 32 high schools and districts, guaranteeing admission—with currently no restrictions on majors—for students meeting the program criteria. Through Merced Promise, the campus plans to develop a “Program Mapper” to narrow information gaps and accelerate progress towards degrees, increase opportunities for community college students to participate in research and courses at UC Merced, and increase outreach to middle and high school students. There is only one UC campus in the region—because efforts like this are so key, a broader scope is necessary.

The state’s CSU campuses have similarly increased engagement within the region, most recently evidenced by Fresno State’s new Bulldog Bound Guaranteed Admissions Program for students at nearby partnering school districts. The program—which includes 35 high schools and districts—aims to support students and families with admission preparation as early as ninth grade. It plans to offer various benefits including early financial aid estimates, help with career and academic major preparation, and dual enrollment opportunities. Granting priority enrollment to four-year universities and creating regional referral pools for CSU can enhance accessibility and streamline the transition process for students.

More broadly, wider coordination focused on local economic needs is critical. A promising example of this is a recent collaboration between Merced, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties through WE Will! The Northern San Joaquin Valley K–16 Regional Partnership, which was recently awarded millions in state funds to help spearhead efforts to streamline college and career pathways in high demand in the region. The collaborative is expansive, including UC Merced, Stanislaus State, community colleges, high school districts, county offices of education, economic development agencies, local and regional employers, and other education and workforce partnerships. More narrowly, UC Merced’s SJV PRIME+ BS/MD pathway is a concerted effort to educate and support the region’s future physicians, focusing on high school students “who are committed to pursuing a career in medicine and are dedicated to serving the San Joaquin Valley’s unique needs.” The eight-year program involves a partnership between UC Merced, UCSF Fresno, and UCSF, highlighting the promise of statewide collaboration in advancing regional equity.

Supporting Place-Bound Students

Widening pathways and broadening regional outreach and coordination could help address information gaps and perceptions that higher education is not accessible. However, more work will be needed to address the additional factors that influence students’ decisions to apply to four-year universities.

Many students in the San Joaquin Valley that apply to and attend college tend do so within the region, signaling that they are either place-bound and/or have strong preferences for staying close to home—perhaps due to a combination of financial, family, work, transportation, and housing constraints, among others. The UC and CSU systems should expand upon their outreach and coordination efforts to broaden opportunities—higher education must make sense for students throughout all localities within the San Joaquin Valley. Such efforts could include developing and leveraging new satellite campuses to widen access throughout the region; providing enhanced aid, housing, and transportation options and supports to address place-bound constraints; and making concerted efforts to offer tight-knit collegiate environments, acknowledge student’s cultural values, and instill a cultural sense of belonging. The Central Valley Project at UCLA provides a great example of the latter and highlights the importance of engaging universities inside and outside of the valley in this effort.

Raising Persistence and Graduation Rates at Four-Year Institutions

In addition to enrollment, an emphasis on college completion is paramount. The early years of college are particularly crucial, and efforts should be concentrated on fostering persistence during this period. While differences in graduation rates at UC and CSU may partly stem from regional disparities in academic preparation in high school and community college, they nevertheless expose the need to expand the region’s focus from solely ensuring equitable representation in access towards holistically ensuring equitable representation in completion. Achieving this requires a deliberate effort from the state’s public four-year institutions to ensure students from the San Joaquin Valley are supported throughout their educational journey to and through earning a college degree.

Increasing Program Evaluations and Data Sharing

To inform and refine these efforts, robust data, evaluation mechanisms, and flexibility are indispensable. Regularly assessing progress and adapting strategies based on feedback and outcomes will be instrumental in achieving meaningful results. Support for regional data sharing and evaluation is critical. The state should play a central role in coordinating these efforts, ensuring that relevant stakeholders have access to comprehensive and up-to-date information. This collaborative approach will enable continuous improvement and the identification of effective strategies for enhancing college access and completion in the San Joaquin Valley.

The San Joaquin Valley has the potential to become a model for advancing college-going and completion by strategically addressing key transition points, fostering a culture of higher education, and leveraging regional collaborations for sustained success.