For over 200 years, the United States has used the Electoral College to determine the outcome of the presidential vote—a process that was created as part of a compromise between a vote by citizens and a vote by members of Congress. With an upcoming presidential election that will likely come down to a handful of battleground states, how do Californians feel about the Electoral College? In the latest PPIC Statewide Survey, most across demographic lines support changing the current electoral system to a direct popular vote, but the partisan divide on this issue is stark.

Thinking about future presidential elections, about seven in ten California adults (69%) say they would support changing to a system in which the president is elected by direct popular vote instead of by the Electoral College, according to the September PPIC Statewide Survey; 28% of adults are opposed. Shares are similar among likely voters (70% support, 28% oppose). Though PPIC has not asked this question since October 2008, responses today are similar to findings back then. Overall, Californians today are slightly more likely than adults nationwide (63%) to support changing to a popular vote system, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.

Strong majorities across demographic groups support changing to a direct popular vote, with some variation. Women are slightly more likely than men to support this, and the share in support rises as education level increases. Support is highest among Inland Empire residents (76%), African Americans (76%), and adults ages 35 to 54 (74%).

However, there is a notable partisan divide on this issue, with over eight in ten Democrats and two in three independents in support of presidential elections conducted by direct popular vote, while Republicans are divided evenly. Since 2000, presidential candidates have twice won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016); the last time a Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote was in 2004 (George W. Bush). Partisan sentiment is echoed across ideological lines, with nine in ten liberals and about two in three moderates in support, while conservative adults are more divided.

When we look at party identification and self-described political ideology together, we find that majorities of middle-of-the-road Democrats, independents, and Republicans support a direct popular vote. An overwhelming majority of California Democrats who are ideologically liberal support the idea of changing to a popular vote, and Democrats who are very liberal (98%) are even more likely than those who are somewhat liberal (84%) to say this. Overall, fewer than half of Republicans who identify as conservative (46%) say they support a direct popular vote for presidential elections; however, more than half of Republicans (54%) who identify as somewhat conservative support a popular vote, compared to about three in ten of very conservative Republicans (32%). Further analysis on independents could not be conducted due to small sample sizes.

Other elections, such as congressional and gubernatorial elections, are decided by direct popular vote. However, though most Americans support switching to a popular vote to elect the president, on November 5, the Electoral College will once again determine the outcome of the US presidential race. As the election nears, PPIC will continue to monitor Californians’ views on voting and the electoral process.