Labor Day is behind us, and the 2024 election has entered the final stretch. Every registered voter in California will be sent a voter information guide in a few weeks and then a vote-by-mail ballot in early October. Drawing from our freshly updated fact sheets on California’s likely voters and party profiles, as well as from the 2024 PPIC Statewide Surveys, I would like to offer some insights into the way the political winds are blowing in the November 5 election.

To provide some context, it is important to note how much the California electorate has grown in 10 years. The state government made a concerted effort to increase voter registration and participation in the wake of a record low turnout of 7.5 million (31% of eligible adults) in November 2014. The legislature enacted automatic voter registration and vote-by-mail ballots are now sent to all registered voters. The result was a record high turnout of 17.8 million (71% of eligible adults) in November 2020.

This year, there are about 22 million registered voters (82% of eligible adults) who will receive a vote-by-mail ballot. The 2020 turnout record could be shattered now that the top-of the ticket race is an extraordinary matchup between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris from the Golden State.

California’s political profile has changed as its electorate has expanded. There is a 21-point gap between all registered Democrats and Republicans today (46% to 25%) compared to the 15-point margin in 2014. There is a similar 22-point partisan gap for “likely voters” in PPIC surveys today (48% Democrats, 26% Republicans) in contrast to the 12-point gap in 2014 (44% Democrats, 32% Republicans).

Fewer likely voters are saying they are conservatives today than 10 years ago (28% to 38%). And reflecting the increasing polarization of the major political parties, more Democrats say they are liberals today than in 2014 (62% to 55%), while more Republicans describe themselves as conservatives (73% to 69%), and more independents say they are political moderates (54% to 39%).

Reflecting the state’s demographic shifts, fewer likely voters today identify as white compared to 2014 (50% to 62%), while more identify as Latino (26% to 17%) or Asian (15% to 11%); the number of Californians identifying as African American are about the same (5% to 6%). The two major parties have both become more racially and ethnically diverse; however, the majority of Democrats are people of color while the majority of Republicans are white.

Despite these shifts, likely voters continue to look like an “exclusive electorate” that over-represents those who are older, affluent, college educated, and homeowners. Many infrequent voters and those not registered to vote tend to be 18-to-34 years old, nonwhite, renters, noncollege educated, and lower-income residents. Infrequent voters and unregistered voters are more likely to say they lean toward the Democrats than the Republicans; however, about half say they do not lean toward either of the major parties and most call themselves political moderates. If California wants to generate a higher turnout, it will depend on stimulating interest in registering to vote and casting ballots among low propensity voters.

Let’s now turn from California’s voters to the issue that they care about most: the economy. It’s been the top issue in our surveys throughout this year and has a number of important components. For instance, Californians are more worried about rising prices and the cost of living than about jobs and unemployment. At the same time, most Californians are pessimistic about the economic outlook for the state and the nation. Some pundits have noted that economic concerns will diminish with lower inflation and lower interest rates this fall. But, looking at the long term, the PPIC survey finds a disturbing trend in voters’ economic views.

When asked about the economy today, just 35% of likely voters believe “everyone has a fair chance to get ahead” while 64% think “it’s mainly just a few people at the top who have a chance to get ahead.” Ten years ago, Californians were evenly divided. Now, across demographic groups and regions of the state, fewer than half believe that everyone has a fair chance. Importantly, just 25% of Democrats, 37% of independents, and 51% of Republicans (down from 64% in 2014) hold this view. The policy solutions put forward by political campaigns—and whether they appeal to populist or progressive sentiments—will play a key role in determining voter turnout, especially among low propensity voters this year.

In California, there will be no drama about the top of the ticket—our blue state has supported Democratic presidential candidates and US senate candidates in every race since 1992. Moreover, most of the 52 House district races and the 100 state legislative races will also favor Democratic candidates. But California has distinctly red regions inland and in the rural north that run counter to the one-party state image—and where the Republican candidates will prevail.

And it’s important to keep in mind that there were 6 million ballots cast for former president Donald Trump in California in 2020—more than in any other state. California has its purple regions where no party has a stronghold—notably in parts of the Central Valley, the Inland Empire, and Orange–San Diego Counties. The outcomes in House district races in these purple areas—where competitive House races are clustered—will be closely watched.

In these races, how many votes are cast, by whom, and for what candidates will help to determine the party in control of Congress. These variables will also impact the fate of 10 state propositions—with major implications for policies on criminal justice, climate change, education, employment, housing, and infrastructure. California’s voter registration and election system have evolved to meet turnout challenges. At a time when many are not satisfied with the way US democracy is working, most likely voters say they have either a “great deal” (40%) or “quite a lot” (25%) of confidence in our state’s electoral process. A high voter turnout would send a message that democracy and the election system are working in California.

Many observers describe the upcoming election as the most consequential in decades. Californians agree, with 84% of likely voters saying that voting in elections in 2024 is very important to them. Overwhelming majorities hold this view across partisan and demographic groups and state regions. Still, voter turnout is the political wildcard in the 2024 election—both in California and across the country.