PPIC’s 30th anniversary offers an opportunity to look back on three decades of K–12 education in California. One of the biggest changes over the past 30 years has been the swing from substantial growth to declining numbers of K–12 students. In 1994–95, California’s public schools served roughly 5.3 million students; the student population grew steadily until 2006–7, when it peaked at 6.3 million students; now, there are 5.8 million students, and the state projects that enrollment will fall to its 1994 level by 2031.

Falling birthrates, reduced international migration to California, and continued outmigration to other states are the primary drivers of enrollment declines; these declines are being felt most acutely in coastal districts, reflecting movement to more affordable inland areas. In recent years, enrollment declines have been somewhat tempered by the gradual expansion of California’s transitional kindergarten (TK) program, which will be accessible to all four-year-olds in 2025–26.

Alongside K–12 enrollment declines, the demographic composition of California’s school population has been changing. The share of schoolchildren that are Latino or Asian is rising. Perhaps most significantly, fewer students now enter school needing dual language instruction. Back in 1998, voters approved Prop 227, which aimed to speed English acquisition for the approximately 1.4 million school children who primarily spoke a non-English language at home by limiting bilingual instruction. In the most recent school year, that number was just 1.1 million, and state policy has shifted toward bilingualism. The California Department of Education is working to expand bilingual instruction for children learning English, with the goal that by 2030, half of all students gain proficiency in two or more languages—and that by 2040, 75% of California high school graduates are fluent in multiple languages.

California’s school funding landscape has also changed considerably. In 1994, California ranked 36th among US states in per student funding, and school spending has dipped during several recessionary periods over the past few decades. After increasing significantly over the past decade, however, spending in California is above the national average.

In 2013—after PPIC research helped shine a light on the state’s opaque and inequitable funding system—California implemented the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF), with the aim of increasing transparency, flexibility, and equity. The LCFF directs a greater proportion of state funding to districts with larger “high-need” student populations and gives districts more say in program design and resource distribution to schools and students.

The LCFF fundamentally changed the way state funding reaches school districts. However, persistent gaps in student outcomes by race and income as well as low levels of student proficiency in math and ELA compared to other states have fueled debates about how much money is spent, what it is spent on, and how students and schools are targeted. There have also been concerns about special education funding, which is managed outside the LCFF.

While declining enrollment and school funding are an essential part of the K–12 picture over the past few decades, COVID learning recovery continues to be among the system’s greatest challenges. Before the pandemic, California had seen progress in math and reading standardized test scores since the 1990s, roughly mirroring the national trend in math while closing the gap between California and the national average in reading. In 1992, only 19% of California fourth-graders were at or above national grade-level standards in reading; math proficiency was even lower, at 12%. By 2019, grade 4 proficiency had risen to 32% for reading and 34% for math, but scores fell after the onset of the pandemic: in 2022, grade 4 proficiency was at 31% for reading and 30% for math; the declines in math put 4^th and 8^th grade proficiency back at 2009 levels.

In addition, chronic absenteeism rates ballooned during the pandemic and have remained quite high in its aftermath. If these rates are not reduced, they will have lasting effects not only on students who miss school but also on the learning experience of students in the classroom.

California’s public schools have weathered many changes over the past few decades, and they will be grappling with some real challenges in the coming years—including ongoing learning recovery, rising pension and benefit costs, updating school facilities, ensuring digital access, and potential school closures due to declining enrollment. However, there may also be some opportunities. Enrollment declines may allow the state to invest more in each child without additional revenue sources. And California’s commitment to both universal TK and its expansion of other preschool options may help the next generation of students thrive in their K–12 years and beyond. As California’s public school system continues to evolve, PPIC’s education team will continue to produce rigorous research and analysis with the aim of lifting outcomes for all students.