With early voting about to begin in California, we checked in with Mark Baldassare, survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. Previously, he served as president and CEO of PPIC. A leading expert on public opinion and survey methodology, he has directed the PPIC Statewide Survey since 1998.

California is a deep blue state in national politics, but we have our own partisan divides. So what does polarization look like here?

I start with the polling about where people stand in terms of their political ideology. Only about one in five Californians put themselves at either the very liberal or very conservative side of the spectrum in our polls. Most people put themselves right in the middle—or say that they’re somewhat liberal or somewhat conservative. So in terms of political viewpoints California is not deeply polarized, although there are certainly many areas of strong disagreement.

Perhaps more interesting is that there are many areas of agreement. And this shows up in our polling. For instance, if we ask what people think is the most important problem facing the state, both Democrats and Republicans agree that it’s the economy, jobs, and inflation. Then there is the high cost of housing. Republicans and Democrats agree that this creates great financial strain. What about homelessness? Again, partisans agree: this is a cost-of-housing problem.

But that’s not to say that there isn’t a divide in our state. If you look at California from a geographical perspective, there are definitely red, blue, and purple areas—which speaks to our state’s wide diversity of viewpoints. And it’s important to keep in mind that in the 2020 election, Donald Trump got more votes in California than in any other state: 6 million.

According to your surveys, Californians have been pessimistic about the economy all year long. And the state is in difficult budget territory. How might these conditions affect outcomes in November?

This election cycle is going to be determined a lot by how people are feeling about the economy: how much confidence they have, how much disappointment they have, and how it’s performing for them. California’s initiative process provides important signs of how voters are thinking about broader conditions, so I always look carefully at that. Of the ten initiatives on this year’s ballot, we have two state bond measures and two citizens’ initiatives that are noteworthy when it comes to the economy and the state budget.

Propositions 2 and 4 would each issue $10 billion bonds, one for school facilities and one for climate resiliency. Can the state afford this, given our budget situation? Right now, likely voters are saying yes. Our most recent poll shows majority support for each, with school facilities getting slightly less support (54%) than climate resiliency (65%).

And then we have the two citizens’ initiatives. Prop 32 would increase the minimum wage; in our most recent poll, likely voters were evenly divided in their support (50% yes, 49% no). Prop 33 would expand the ability of local governments to enact rent control. Likely voters are slightly more likely to say they would vote yes (51%) than no (46%) on this initiative.

In addition, local governments up and down the state are looking for more funding for infrastructure, education, transportation, and housing. And they’re going to voters and asking for that. Those outcomes will tell us a lot about how people are feeling.

In California—and the nation—there’s a pervasive issue with trust in government. What are your thoughts? 

In our latest poll, 31% of Californians say that they trust the federal government to do what is right just about always or most of the time, and 42% say they trust the state government to do what is right just about always or most of the time. Those are low numbers.

But the issue of trust in government has been around for many decades. Some would go back to Watergate and the Vietnam War and say this problem has been around for 50 years or longer. But there are a couple of things that are different about trust in government today that concern me.

Trust is no longer just around governing, it’s also around the process of elections and how democracy is operating. Many people say that they don’t have confidence in the way elections are handled and have questioned the outcomes. That’s different from the historical issues around trust in government. And it’s troubling.

Another aspect of the trust in government, and this comes back to the issue that you raised earlier about polarization and partisanship, is that there’s been a decline in local community engagement. This is something I noticed when I went back to some of our first surveys—conducted in 1998—and compared them to our 2023 and 2024 surveys.

People today are less connected to their communities and less connected to those who might have different views, whether it’s because they’re less likely to be looking at a local newspaper, going to a local house of worship, or getting involved in local civic associations. This decline in local community has implications for the trust people have in those who have different political views than they do—and this is translating into how people view the whole political process.

In these challenging and uncertain times, what gives you hope?

In California, it’s that people aren’t really as divided as they might seem. As I mentioned earlier, there are many issues that Democrats and Republicans agree on—at least in terms of how problematic they are—including housing, homelessness, the economy. These are critical topics for our state, and there will be many opportunities for Republicans and Democrats to find their way to consensus and agreement. And that gives me hope that California can find its way to solving its most pressing problems.