blog post California’s Violent Crime Rate Is Diverging from the National Trend By Magnus Lofstrom Nov 1, 2023 In the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, California's violent crime rate roughly mirrored the nationwide trend. But as of 2022, California's violent crime rate is nearly one-third higher than the US rate, a divergence driven largely by aggravated assaults.
Fact Sheet Crime Trends in California By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 17, 2023 Violent crime in California has ticked up in recent years, with a pronounced increase in incidents involving guns since 2019. Property crime has also risen steadily statewide, and rates now stand slightly above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
blog post Two Years of Wide Variation in Crime Trends By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Mar 21, 2022 Increases in crime during the first year and a half of the pandemic—particularly in homicide and aggravated assault—have been troubling, but most crime numbers are now relatively close to the low levels seen over the last decade.
blog post Violent Crimes Involving Guns Drive Recent Rise in Crime By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 19, 2022 While overall violent crime in California has risen slightly during the pandemic, homicides by firearms and aggravated assaults involving a gun have both surged since 2019.
blog post Gun Incidents Drive a Climb in Violent Crime Rates By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 25, 2023 Violent crime in California has been ticking up since 2019. And while the overall share of violent crimes involving guns dipped in 2022, it remains above pre-pandemic levels.
blog post After Decreases in 2020, Both Property and Violent Crimes Are Up in 2021 By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Dec 14, 2021 Preliminary data from four major California cities—Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego, and San Francisco—show that property and violent crime numbers have increased and are now similar to pre-pandemic levels.
blog post Testimony: Crime Trends in California By Magnus Lofstrom Jan 30, 2014 As legislators prepare to consider the state budget, the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee took a broad look at public safety realignment at a hearing this week. The committee invited PPIC research fellow Magnus Lofstrom to testify about the impact of this major change in corrections policy on crime in California.
Report Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California By Steven Raphael, Magnus Lofstrom May 19, 2015 When California’s historic public safety realignment was implemented in October 2011, many were concerned about the impact it would have on crime rates. In a 2013 report, we found that realignment did not increase violent crime in its first year, but that it did lead to an increase in auto thefts. In this report, we assess whether these trends continued beyond realignment’s first year. We find that both the prison and jail populations increased slightly since 2012, which means that the number of offenders on the street did not rise from the 18,000 during realignment’s first year. This is likely to change with the implementation of Proposition 47, which further reduces California’s reliance on incarceration. Our analysis of updated state-level crime data from the FBI confirms our previous findings. Violent crime rates remain unaffected by realignment, and although California’s property crime rate decreased in 2013, it did not drop more than in comparable states—so the auto theft gap that opened up in 2012 has not closed. Research indicates that further reductions in incarceration may have a greater effect on crime trends; the state needs to implement effective crime prevention strategies—and it can learn about alternatives to incarceration successfully implemented by the counties as well as other states.
blog post A Large Proportion of Crime Goes Unsolved in California By Magnus Lofstrom May 11, 2023 California’s clearance rates—the shares of reported crimes for which police make an arrest and refer the arrestee to prosecution—are better than those nationwide. Still, statewide less than half of violent crimes and only one in ten property crimes are cleared.
