Fact Sheet Crime Trends in California By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 17, 2023 Violent crime in California has ticked up in recent years, with a pronounced increase in incidents involving guns since 2019. Property crime has also risen steadily statewide, and rates now stand slightly above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
blog post Testimony: Crime Trends in California By Magnus Lofstrom Jan 30, 2014 As legislators prepare to consider the state budget, the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee took a broad look at public safety realignment at a hearing this week. The committee invited PPIC research fellow Magnus Lofstrom to testify about the impact of this major change in corrections policy on crime in California.
Fact Sheet Felony Arrests in California By Magnus Lofstrom, Alexandria Gumbs, Joseph Hayes, Brandon Martin Apr 14, 2020 After Prop 47, the share of California felony arrests fell. In this fact sheet we review the most common arrests, for violent offenses and property crimes, and discuss the disproportionate arrest rate of African Americans—who are more likely to be released without charges. Data also shows higher arrest rates in less populous areas and greater racial discrepancies in dense areas.
blog post California’s Violent Crime Rate Is Diverging from the National Trend By Magnus Lofstrom Nov 1, 2023 In the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, California's violent crime rate roughly mirrored the nationwide trend. But as of 2022, California's violent crime rate is nearly one-third higher than the US rate, a divergence driven largely by aggravated assaults.
blog post Violent Crimes Involving Guns Drive Recent Rise in Crime By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 19, 2022 While overall violent crime in California has risen slightly during the pandemic, homicides by firearms and aggravated assaults involving a gun have both surged since 2019.
Report California’s County Jails in the Era of Reform By Sonya Tafoya, Mia Bird, Ryken Grattet, Viet Nguyen Sep 26, 2016 California’s county jails have been profoundly affected by several reforms over the last decade. Most importantly, in 2011, public safety realignment shifted responsibility for large numbers of non-serious, non-violent, and non-sexual offenders from state prisons to county correctional systems. This lowered the state prison population—allowing prisons to prioritize beds for more serious offenders—but increased county jail populations. Three years later, Proposition 47 downgraded a range of drug and property offenses from potential felonies to misdemeanors. The reduced population pressure has allowed jails to prioritize beds for more serious drug and property offenders who are no longer eligible for prison. Despite the growing importance of jails, little is known about the basic characteristics of jail populations. In this report, we analyze state and local data on individuals moving through county correctional systems. Using data from 11 counties, we find that: Reforms altered the offender composition of the jail population, especially among those held on drug and property crimes. After three years under realignment, the number of drug and property offenders in jails increased by 55 percent and 40 percent, respectively. One year after the passage of Proposition 47, the number of drug and property offenders fell by 35 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Length of stay for felony drug and property offenders increased after realignment. For example, median time served for felony drug offenders released in October 2011 was 45 days, compared to 98 days for those released in October 2015. However, length of stay for people who served time for misdemeanors and felony crimes against persons has remained stable. Releases due to overcapacity rose under realignment and dropped after Proposition 47, when jail population pressure eased. The demographic composition of jails has largely remained stable. But the age distribution does show modest signs of change: the share of those ages 18–21 in jail has decreased slightly, as the share of those in their 30s has increased. As jail populations shift toward more serious drug and property offenders, counties and the state will need to consider how jail security and rehabilitative programs might be made more effective. While researchers and policymakers continue to examine the longer-term effects of realignment and Proposition 47, it is also important to keep in mind that the recent reprioritization of jail beds may have implications for crime and recidivism.
blog post Crime Rates Down, But Not Everywhere By Magnus Lofstrom Nov 11, 2014 Most of California’s counties saw lower crime rates in 2013, according to the latest data. Violent crime dropped in 41 out of the 58 counties, and property crime dropped in 37 counties.
