blog post Low Crime Numbers Leveling off Under Shelter-in-Place By Magnus Lofstrom May 26, 2020 While crime rates continue to be low in major California cities, some crimes—such as burglaries and car theft—have gone up.
Report Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California By Steven Raphael, Magnus Lofstrom May 19, 2015 When California’s historic public safety realignment was implemented in October 2011, many were concerned about the impact it would have on crime rates. In a 2013 report, we found that realignment did not increase violent crime in its first year, but that it did lead to an increase in auto thefts. In this report, we assess whether these trends continued beyond realignment’s first year. We find that both the prison and jail populations increased slightly since 2012, which means that the number of offenders on the street did not rise from the 18,000 during realignment’s first year. This is likely to change with the implementation of Proposition 47, which further reduces California’s reliance on incarceration. Our analysis of updated state-level crime data from the FBI confirms our previous findings. Violent crime rates remain unaffected by realignment, and although California’s property crime rate decreased in 2013, it did not drop more than in comparable states—so the auto theft gap that opened up in 2012 has not closed. Research indicates that further reductions in incarceration may have a greater effect on crime trends; the state needs to implement effective crime prevention strategies—and it can learn about alternatives to incarceration successfully implemented by the counties as well as other states.
press release Proposition 47 Linked to Increase in Some Property Crimes, But Not Violent Crime Jun 12, 2018
Report Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime? By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Deepak Premkumar Sep 27, 2023 Among Californians born in 1993 and later, criminal offending has fallen 20 to 25 percent compared to previous generations. This shift in longstanding trends is a driving factor behind the overall decline in crime over the last decades and has several broader implications for the criminal justice system.
blog post Recent State Crime Trends Mostly Mirror the Nation By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 8, 2021 Newly released FBI data show that trends in California’s crime rate last year—including a large and troubling jump in homicides—mostly mirrored national trends, but with some key differences.
blog post California’s Violent Crime Rate Is Diverging from the National Trend By Magnus Lofstrom Nov 1, 2023 In the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, California's violent crime rate roughly mirrored the nationwide trend. But as of 2022, California's violent crime rate is nearly one-third higher than the US rate, a divergence driven largely by aggravated assaults.
blog post Gun Incidents Drive a Climb in Violent Crime Rates By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 25, 2023 Violent crime in California has been ticking up since 2019. And while the overall share of violent crimes involving guns dipped in 2022, it remains above pre-pandemic levels.
blog post Retail Theft and Robbery Rates Have Risen across California By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 7, 2023 California has seen an overall increase in retail theft and robbery rates in recent years. Our analysis finds especially notable increases in the Bay Area and the Central Valley, with certain commercial crimes also increasing substantially in parts of southern California.
Report Police Use of Force and Misconduct in California By Deepak Premkumar, Alexandria Gumbs, Shannon McConville, Renee Hsia Oct 26, 2021 Nearly 200 Californians die each year in police encounters. Amid growing concern over civilian deaths and racial injustice, we examine what the existing data can—and cannot—tell us about police use of force and misconduct. We also offer recommendations for strengthening the state’s ongoing efforts to improve police transparency and accountability.
blog post Californians Fear Being a Victim of Crime, and Some Have Been Victims of Racial Profiling By Deja Thomas Mar 14, 2023 A recent PPIC Statewide Survey finds that nearly two in three Californians worry that they or a family member will be a victim of crime. Meanwhile, one in three say they or someone they know have been victims of racial profiling, with Black Californians more likely than other groups to say this.
