Report Will California Run Out of College Graduates? By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia Oct 12, 2015 California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow? This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap. Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market. The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.
Report Public Safety Realignment: Impacts So Far By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 28, 2015 Prompted by a federal court order to reduce prison overcrowding, California’s 2011 historic public safety realignment shifted many correctional responsibilities for lower-level felons from the state to counties. The reform was premised on the idea that locals can do a better job, and it was hoped that incarceration rates and corrections costs would fall. At the same time, critics predicted crime would rise. Four years since its implementation, realignment has made several important impacts: Realignment significantly reduced the prison population, but the state did not reach the court-mandated population target until after the passage of Proposition 47 in November 2014, which reduced penalties for many property and drug offenses. The reform challenged county jails and probation departments by making them responsible for a greater number of offenders with a broader range of backgrounds and needs. The county jail population did not rise nearly as much as the prison population fell, reducing the total number of people incarcerated in California. Realignment did not increase violent crime, but auto thefts rose. Research so far shows no dramatic change in recidivism rates. State corrections spending remains high, but there is reason to believe expenditures could drop in the future. Realignment has largely been successful, but the state and county correctional systems face significant challenges. The state needs to regain control of prison medical care, which is now in the hands of a federal receiver. And the state and counties together must make progress in reducing stubbornly high recidivism rates.
blog post Public School Enrollment Declines Vary across Grade Levels By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty May 4, 2023 California’s public school enrollment decreased slightly in 2022–23 and has now fallen for six years in a row. While the latest enrollment levels in grades 2 through 12 were close to projections, enrollment in earlier grades fell short.
blog post A Closer Look at Enrollment Changes in California’s Public Schools By Julien Lafortune, Laura Hill, Emmanuel Prunty Jun 5, 2024 Public TK–12 enrollment in California fell by almost 15,000 students—about a quarter of a percent—in 2023–24. Although this marks the seventh straight year of declines, the statewide enrollment picture has improved considerably since the first years of the pandemic.
blog post Shifting School Enrollment Trends across California’s Regions By Julien Lafortune, Laura Hill Jun 20, 2024 California public school enrollment overall has declined notably over the past decade and is projected to continue decreasing in the coming years. We examine the wide variation in enrollment trends across the state's diverse regions.
Policy Brief Policy Brief: The Future of Higher Education Enrollment in California By Hans Johnson, Cesar Alesi Perez, Mary Severance Jun 17, 2024 Higher education has long been a driver of economic mobility and well-being in California. While college enrollment and completion have long trended upward, the state population fell and higher education enrollment declined during the pandemic. How will California’s colleges and universities fare over the next two decades?
Report Counting California: Challenges for the 2020 Census By Sarah Bohn, Eric McGhee, Lynette Ubois Mar 23, 2020 California has worked hard in preparing for the census and has invested deeply to meet the high-stakes challenge of counting every resident. A House seat and the allocation of billions in federal funds are on the line.
blog post Homeless Populations Are Rising around California By Jennifer Paluch, Joseph Herrera Feb 21, 2023 Between 2020 and 2022, California’s homeless population increased by 6%. While this growth was largely concentrated in urban areas, the number of people experiencing homelessness declined in San Francisco and Orange County.
blog post Public School Enrollment across California’s Regions, Past and Future By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty May 10, 2023 While California public school enrollment has fallen for the sixth straight year, the trend varies across regions. Coastal areas have seen some of the largest drops in enrollment and are likely to experience continued declines.
Report Labor Force Participation in California By Julien Lafortune, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Jenny Duan ... Feb 14, 2024 California’s labor force participation is shrinking, mainly because of an aging population. But significant gaps across demographic groups are also a concern. How can California remove barriers to work, boost participation, and build a strong workforce for years to come?
