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California’s Future Workforce: Will There Be Enough College Graduates?

By Deborah Reed

Over the past several decades, the demand in California for college-educated workers has grown. But the supply of college graduates has not kept pace with demand, and it appears that this “workforce skills gap” will not only continue but widen. This study examines the causes, magnitude, and likely consequences of the potential mismatch between the level of education the future population is likely to possess and the level of education demanded by the future economy. The author concludes that if current trends continue, California will experience a serious shortfall of college graduates by 2025, unable to meet its needs even through the migration of college graduates from other states.

Report

Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

Report

Understanding the Effects of School Funding

By Julien Lafortune

Funding for California’s K–12 public schools has reached record highs, but gaps in student outcomes remain. Understanding the benefits of additional funds, and how to distribute those funds, are key concerns for policymakers. This report offers insights from a robust body of research on the extent to which higher spending improves outcomes.

California Counts, Report

Can California Import Enough College Graduates to Meet Workforce Needs?

By Deborah Reed, Hans Johnson

Economic projections for California indicate a continuation of the trend toward a more highly skilled economy. But projections of educational attainment for the future population tend to predict a wide gap between the levels of skills the population is likely to possess and the level of skills the economy is likely to need. This issue of California Counts assesses whether California will be able to attract enough college graduates from other states and other countries to close that gap. The authors conclude that because of the sheer numbers of migrants required and other factors, it is unlikely that migration alone will solve the problem.

blog post

Video: Keeping Students on Track for College

By Linda Strean

Only about 30% of California 9th graders are expected to earn a bachelor’s degree—a startling statistic in a state that faces a shortfall of college graduates. PPIC researchers and a panel of experts discuss the challenges and solutions for improving college pathways.

blog post

Is College Worth it? What Graduates Say

By Sarah Bohn

Graduates say their investment in college was worth it, according to national survey data. But they are less satisfied with their choices of colleges, majors, or degrees.

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