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What’s in Store for California’s Economy?

By Sarah Bohn

California starts the year with low unemployment, rising wages, and falling inflation—but also with residents expressing pessimism about the state's economic outlook. We look at what's ahead for the California economy.

blog post

A Regional Look at California’s Latest Employment Trends

By Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Jenny Duan, Julien Lafortune

While employment is higher than it was before the pandemic, California’s economy could face headwinds in the coming months. We look at how seven major regions are faring and discuss the factors driving job growth in different parts of the state.

Policy Brief

Policy Brief: Labor Force Participation in California

By Julien Lafortune, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Jenny Duan ...

California’s labor force participation is shrinking, mainly because of an aging population. But significant gaps across demographic groups are also a concern. How can California remove barriers to work, boost participation, and build a strong workforce for years to come?

blog post

California’s Recovery Backslides

By Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Julien Lafortune

The number of jobs in California declined last month for the first time since April. Overall, jobs statewide are down 8% compared to a year ago, with face-to-face service sectors being the hardest hit.

blog post

How Is California’s Child Care Sector Faring?

By Sarah Bohn, Julien Lafortune

Parents are back to work, with the share of employed mothers even higher than it was pre-COVID. But job recovery in the child care sector markedly lags that of the economy overall.

Report

Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

blog post

Will Infrastructure Investments Mean Better Jobs for Californians?

By Daniel Payares-Montoya, Shannon McConville, Sarah Bohn

Substantial new public spending on infrastructure has the potential to increase economic mobility in California, though a share of the newly created jobs likely will be in low-paying occupations.

Report

Career Pathways and Economic Mobility at California’s Community Colleges

By Sarah Bohn, Jacob Jackson, Shannon McConville

Career education credentials from California’s community colleges can help students advance in the labor market. But some programs offer larger economic returns than others, and it can take a long time for students to see increased earnings. Improving student outcomes—while also responding to future workforce needs—is a challenging but critical task facing the state.

blog post

California Farmers Face Labor Drought

By Jelena Jezdimirovic

After years of record drought, California’s farmers now face a farm labor shortage caused by declining immigration from Mexico.

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