Fact Sheet California’s Population By Hans Johnson, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Eric McGhee Jan 19, 2024 Growth in the nation’s most populous state has slowed notably in the 21st century, with recent years bringing a drop in population due to higher deaths, lower births, and changes in migration. More than half of Californians under 24 are Latino while more than half of Californians 65 and older are white.
California Counts, Report How Many Californians? A Review of Population Projections for the State By Hans Johnson Oct 1, 1999 Compares and analyzes population projections produced by various academic and government sources. Discusses the accuracy of past population projections and assesses differences in the assumptions of various estimates.
Explainer What’s Behind California’s Recent Population Decline—and Why It Matters By Hans Johnson, Eric McGhee, Carolyn Subramaniam, Vicki Hsieh Oct 2, 2023 California’s unprecedented population loss during the pandemic raises questions about what a shrinking or slowly growing population means for the state’s future.
Report Factors and Future Projections for K–12 Declining Enrollment By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty Dec 11, 2023 Over the past five years, enrollment has fallen in nearly three-quarters of California school districts, and the trend is expected to continue into the next decade. Faster declines could bring pressure to close schools, along with concerns about the students and neighborhoods bearing the costs of downsizing.
Report Planning for California’s Growing Senior Population By Hans Johnson, Laurel Beck Aug 6, 2015 California’s senior population is entering a period of rapid growth. By 2030, as the Baby Boom generation reaches retirement age, the over-65 population will grow by four million people. It will also become much more racially and ethnically diverse, with the fastest growth among Latinos and Asians. Many more seniors are likely to be single and/or childless—suggesting an increased number of people living alone. All of these changes will have a significant impact on senior support services. We project that by 2030 slightly more than one million seniors will require some assistance with self-care, and that the demand for nursing home care will begin to increase after decades of decline. These changes will have direct budget implications for the Medi-Cal and In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) programs, both of which pay for care and services for low-income seniors. The state will need additional resources, including nursing care facilities and health care professionals, especially those who provide home- and community-based services. California’s community college system will be critical in training workers to meet the state’s health care workforce needs for the growing and changing senior population.
Report The 2020 Census and Political Representation in California By Eric McGhee, Sarah Bohn, Tess Thorman Oct 9, 2018 If the 2020 Census does a poor job of counting traditionally undercounted populations and immigrant communities, the state could easily lose one of its 53 seats in the House of Representatives.
Report California’s Future: Population By Hans Johnson, Marisol Cuellar Mejia Jan 2, 2020 In 2019, California became the first state with 40 million residents. The state has been preparing for the 2020 Census, which will affect political representation and federal funding.
Report The Future of Higher Education Enrollment in California By Hans Johnson, Cesar Alesi Perez Jun 17, 2024 College enrollment and completion have long trended upward in California, but enrollment declined during the pandemic. What might the state’s colleges and universities expect in the future? While California’s population is expected to grow very slowly, rising rates of college readiness among high school graduates will drive increases in enrollment over the next decade.
Report Understanding the Future of Californians’ Fertility: The Role of Immigrants By Laura Hill, Hans Johnson Apr 1, 2002 Current population projections indicate that California could add more than 10 million new residents over the next 20 years. Yet the population projections themselves are the subject of some uncertainty. This report seeks to inform the state's population projections by offering a fine-grained analysis of the state's fertility trends. It focuses on two questions: how much does fertility vary by immigrant generation in California, and what are the relationships between personal characteristics, neighborhood characteristics, and fertility rates among the state's immigrant population and their descendants? The report concludes that immigrant generation is not independently important once personal characteristics are controlled for, but that the predictive value of this factor is still useful for projecting fertility changes. It also suggests that current population projections for California may be too high because they do not consider declines in fertility as immigrants and their descendants adapt to life in this country.
